Issue Type: Month In-Review, November 2025, with early December signals.
Release Date: 9 December 2025
Our weekly Critical Mineral series was doing so well, we decided to keep it going!
So, welcome to the first official issue of ‘Material Evidence’, where we aim to reveal the real signals shaping the world’s critical mineral and material supply chains, and to replace speculation with verifiable truth.
Material Evidence is the intelligence brief for the next era of industrial resilience.
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In the last month, the US and its closest allies didn’t just talk about critical minerals. They stood up an entire domestic magnet and recycling stack and went after Chinese price manipulation head-on.
- The US backed Vulcan Elements and ReElement with a $1.4B public–private magnet deal, effectively seeding a vertically integrated rare-earth magnet supply chain on US soil. -Source
- American Resources Corporation moved forward with converting coal waste into rare-earth production, securing new financing and tying its future even more closely to ReElement’s refining technology. -Source
- ReElement cemented its role as the midstream recycler, securing multiple agreements to turn discarded magnets and e-waste into high-purity rare-earth oxides. -Source
- The White House and Congress moved to counter Chinese non-market pricing and supply manipulation, with Section 232 actions on processed critical minerals and legislation to establish an Intergovernmental Critical Minerals Task Force. -Source
- In parallel, the EU rolled out ReSourceEU and magnet export restrictions, and the UK clarified its stance on price floors, showing how FVEY and EU strategies are converging but not identical. -Source
- MP Materials and the U.S. expanded allied rare-earth refining capacity through a joint venture with Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden, signaling a new era of cross-region industrial alliances. - Source
- The U.S. and Australia committed $2B to advance gallium production, breaking one of China’s most tightly controlled bottlenecks. - Source
The common thread: public capital and policy are now aligned around one objective. Breaking strategic dependence on China. But the system still lacks the verified, cross-border data needed to prove progress and enforce rules.
The move: In early November, Vulcan Elements announced a $1.4B partnership with the US government and ReElement Technologies to build a fully domestic, vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain, from oxides to finished magnets, for defense and advanced technology.
Why it matters: This is not a boutique materials play. It’s a national security-scale industrial bet. DoD/Commerce-backed magnets shift a chunk of US demand out of Chinese-controlled supply chains. The deal bakes in commercial-scale offtake between Vulcan and ReElement for both light and heavy rare earth oxides, locking in midstream and downstream coordination.
Data integrity angle: If this partnership becomes the blueprint for Western magnet security, then every misreported ton, every unverifiable batch of oxides, and every opaque emissions claim becomes a strategic risk, not just a reporting problem.
The move: American Resources Corporation (AREC) continued its pivot from coal to critical minerals, closing a $33M PIPE financing to accelerate development of what it calls the largest rare-earth element mine in the US, accessed via coal waste.
Why it matters: AREC is leveraging its affiliation with and former parent status of ReElement, positioning itself as a major upstream and unconventional feedstock provider within the same domestic magnet/refining ecosystem. Combined with a growing portfolio of contracts and a DoD-linked narrative around rare earth expansion, AREC is effectively saying: the US doesn’t just need more mines, it needs to mine its waste.
Data integrity angle: Coal-waste REE projects live or die on grade characterization, process yields, and environmental performance. Without continuous, verifiable data, it’s impossible to prove that these “waste-to-REE” operations are both economically and environmentally defensible.
The moves: Within a few weeks, ReElement Technologies stacked several key announcements: A strategic processing partnership with ERI, one of the largest e-waste recyclers, to aggregate and pre-process end-of-life magnet materials from eight US recycling centers and refine them into high-purity rare earth oxides. Continued emphasis on Purdue-developed technology to refine and purify rare earth metals and magnet materials.
Why it matters: ReElement is becoming the midstream recycler-of-record for US magnet supply: ERI’s collection and pre-processing, plus ReElement’s refining, creates a closed-loop pathway from e-waste and retired magnets back into US magnet factories. This complements Vulcan’s DoD-backed magnet lines and AREC’s coal-waste feed, tying waste, recycling, and new refining capacity into one domestic system.
Data integrity angle: Recycling targets are meaningless without traceability of feedstock, yields, and purity. ReElement sits where mass balance, provenance, and emissions accounting must be proven in real time if the US wants to claim that its magnets are both domestic and responsible.
Section 232 actions and anti–price manipulation posture: Earlier in 2025, the White House used Section 232 to declare processed critical minerals essential to national security and highlighted concerns about Chinese state-led price manipulation and non-market practices that undermine US producers.
Critical minerals trade agreement, tariff, and export-control maneuvers: A November update on White House trade policy noted that critical minerals remain central to ongoing negotiations and tariff structures, with rare earths and magnet supply at the core of a one-year US–China trade package.
Intergovernmental Critical Minerals Task Force Act: At the end of November, lawmakers advanced the Intergovernmental Critical Minerals Task Force Act, which proposes an interagency task force to assess critical-mineral risks, monitor Chinese behavior, and coordinate responses across US government agencies.
Why it matters: The US is moving from “market will sort it out” to “we will not let Beijing set the floor or ceiling on strategic materials”. Task forces and Section 232 give Washington the tools to intervene on price suppression, dumping, and export dependence in a structured way.
Data integrity angle: You cannot fight non-market pricing and hidden subsidies without hard evidence on costs, flows, and capacity. These task forces will either become data-driven watchdogs or more noise layered on top of weak data.
The move: MP Materials and the U.S. Department of War partnered with Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) to develop joint rare-earth refining and separation capacity across U.S. and Middle Eastern operations.
Why it matters: This is a geopolitical milestone. The first time the U.S. has pulled a Gulf nation directly into the rare-earth midstream as a trusted co-developer, not merely an investor. It diversifies supply chains toward a U.S.–Saudi–FVEY alignment, weakening China’s ability to set global rare-earth prices or control separation capacity. It signals that rare earths are now defense infrastructure, not a commodity.
Data integrity angle: This JV will require bidirectional, cross-border data transparency, covering origin, purity, environmental claims, and strategic stockpile integration. Without that, the JV cannot satisfy defense procurement rules or new U.S. trade controls.
This month marked the start of the alliance-led industrial strategy. For the first time, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Australia, Canada, and the EU all advanced coordinated midstream capacity, creating the early architecture of a multi-regional, shared supply chain bloc.
The move: The UK confirmed it has no immediate plans for a US-style price floor for critical minerals, even as it released a critical-minerals strategy that aims to meet 10% of domestic demand from local mining and 20% from recycling by 2035, backed by up to £50M.
Why it matters: London is closely watching US policy but has not yet matched its market interventions. The UK is targeting lithium, nickel, tungsten, and rare earths and is considering stockpiling within defense procurement, but prefers to allow investment to continue under current signals before hardening controls.
Data integrity angle: Those percentage targets will only have meaning if the UK can measure domestic vs. imported content with precision, especially as components and materials move across multiple jurisdictions.
We covered Canada and Australia earlier, but in this last month, they have continued to function as the physical backbone of allied critical minerals:
Canada’s $2B Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund (from its fall budget) is now moving into project-identification mode, with a clear preference for projects that support allied supply chains and verifiable sustainability profiles. - Source
Australia remains the preferred rock and midstream partner, with Europe and North America both seeking to co-invest in projects that deliver refined products to trusted markets. - Source
Pattern: Five-Eye Allied nations are converging on a shared idea: shared materials, shared risk, and, eventually, shared data.
The move: The United States and Australia jointly committed $2 billion to expand allied critical-mineral production, explicitly supporting Alcoa’s gallium recovery and processing project.
Why it matters: Gallium is a choke point material controlled almost entirely by China. This investment is a message: the U.S. and Australia intend to rebuild the entire Ga supply chain, from bauxite to semiconductor feedstocks. It represents a coordinated industrial push into non-lithium strategic materials vital to microelectronics, AI infrastructure, and defense.
Data integrity angle: Because gallium supply is low-volume but extremely high-stakes, material flow verification must be exact. Historically, gallium reporting has been opaque. This investment requires a complete shift to transparent, real-time tracking.
The move: The EU advanced ReSourceEU, a €3B initiative designed to reduce China's dependence through diversification, domestic projects, joint procurement, and strategic stockpiling.
Why it matters: ReSourceEU is essentially the EU’s way of saying “we will pay to unwind concentration risk”, and it explicitly considers legal obligations for companies to diversify if voluntary measures don’t work.
The move: Brussels is preparing to restrict exports of permanent magnets and increase recycling to cover around 20% of EU magnet demand, as part of a broader effort to cut foreign dependence on critical minerals by 50% by 2029.
Why it matters: Magnets are now treated as strategic assets, not just trade goods. Recycling plants in the EU are being pulled into a quasi-strategic midstream role, similar to ReElement in the US.
Data integrity angle: The EU’s targets depend on tracking embedded magnet content, recovery rates, and cross-border flows. That requires a cross-jurisdictional solution, not just national systems.
The Move: The Financial Times highlighted a mounting European fear. Europe is slipping into structural de-industrialization, driven by soaring energy prices, unreliable access to critical materials, slower deployment of advanced manufacturing, and persistent dependence on Chinese-controlled midstream supply.
Why it matters: This contextualizes why the EU is suddenly imposing magnet-export restrictions, driving ReSourceEU with €3B in new funding, exploring mandatory diversification requirements, and pursuing stockpiles and joint procurement. Europe is not posturing; it is reacting to a real existential threat.
Data integrity angle: The EU’s systemic vulnerabilities all trace back to an inability to monitor, verify, and trust the origin, flows, purity, and strategic alignment of mineral inputs. Without a shared evidence infrastructure, Europe cannot reverse this trend. Europe’s fear is losing visibility. Without real-time, verifiable data on material origin, routing, purity, and emissions, Europe cannot enforce diversification, price-fairness, or strategic autonomy.
Across these moves, three data truths stand out:
This is the gap Demia is built to close by tying real-time, verifiable data to the physical movement and transformation of materials.
US anti–price manipulation enforcement actions may escalate. With the White House sharpening its posture on Chinese non-market pricing and Congress advancing the Intergovernmental Critical Minerals Task Force Act, December may bring the first concrete enforcement guidance or investigative moves.
Details on DOE + EXIM funding pathways for midstream projects. After announcing $355M in DOE funds and up to $100B in EXIM credit support, the next 30–45 days should reveal eligibility criteria, data requirements, and prioritization frameworks, especially for refining, magnet materials, and recycling projects.
Canada’s $2B Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund: first project picks. Ottawa is expected to begin shortlisting projects for sovereign support, with an emphasis on integrating trusted allies.
EU’s ReSourceEU implementation & magnet export rules. Brussels is expected to clarify initial diversification obligations, joint procurement processes, and draft language for permanent-magnet export controls.
Australia–UK and Australia–EU minerals agreements are gaining definition. With both London and Brussels deepening ties with Canberra, December could see the first formalized cooperation frameworks, likely focused on refining magnet materials and security-of-supply provisions.
Demand surges from EV producers and hyperscaler data centers. As year-end procurement cycles close, expect announcements on Q1 2026 procurement volumes, cathode-material adjustments, and new facility expansions, all of which shift demand pressure across lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths.
Emerging technologies nearing deployment: Keep an eye on early-stage announcements tied to:
- advanced rare earth separation
- low-impact extraction
- high-yield magnet recycling
- autonomous ore handling
- refinery energy-optimization platforms
Next month’s winners will be those who see around the corner.
- Vulcan Elements and ReElement’s $1.4B US government-backed magnet partnership solidified US ambitions for an independent magnet supply chain.
- American Resources signaled a full pivot into coal-waste rare earth production, backed by fresh capital.
- ERI + ReElement elevated US magnet recycling from concept to a scalable commercial pathway.
- The White House and Congress moved forward with a task force and trade-based tools to respond to Chinese non-market behavior in critical minerals.
- The EU advanced ReSourceEU and magnet-export controls; the UK clarified its “no price floor (yet)” stance.
- $1.4B Vulcan–ReElement–USG magnet package, combining DoD/Commerce support with private capital. - Source
- AREC’s $33M PIPE financing to accelerate coal-waste REE development. -Source
- Multiple ERI–ReElement recycling deals that lock in long-term feedstock for rare earth oxide production. - Source
- US Section 232 actions and task-force proposals targeting Chinese price manipulation and supply risks. - Source
- EU’s ReSourceEU and magnet export plans are reshaping its materials-security doctrine.
- UK’s decision to forgo a price floor (for now) while still chasing domestic + recycled supply targets.
- US projects are racing to show they’re “task-force ready,” which in practice means they’re suddenly asking how to move beyond PDFs to continuous, verifiable data streams.
- Midstream players are concerned that policy expectations are outpacing their data capabilities, particularly regarding origin, purity, and emissions.
- Investors are increasingly treating data integrity as a core part of due diligence, not an afterthought.
- How quickly the $1.4B Vulcan–ReElement partnership translates into concrete milestones (facility expansions, production timelines, magnet volumes).
- Which specific projects get early support from US task-force structures, EXIM tools, and sovereign funds in Canada and the EU.
- The first signs of enforcement or intervention against Chinese price suppression or dumping will be a stress test for everyone’s data.
In the last month, the US and its allies stopped pretending the magnet and rare-earth supply chain was a “market curiosity” and finally started treating it as core infrastructure.
They’ve picked their champions. They’ve written big checks. They’ve announced task forces and doctrines.
The next question is simple and brutal:
Can anyone actually prove, with live evidence, that these new supply chains are domestic, responsible, and resilient, or are we just swapping one set of assumptions for another?
That’s the gap Material Evidence will track every week. Material Evidence is published every week because the ore you know, the stronger the foundation on which to forge forward.
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